Le Noble Age is a company managing retirement homes for OAP in France. They are a new company who has been in operation for 4 years and clearly very successful.
You will find below calculations carried out on the 6th of August to determine whether Le Noble Age was a bargain trading at €14.7.
I created this spreadsheet after hearing about their 3rd trimester results. What I started doing was to extrapolate the 3rd and 4th trimester progression with regard to current market conditions and specifically answering “What is a reasonable growth rate for these two trimesters?”. I only worried about these two trimesters because – for once – I took a short-term view of the company’s growth and value. Assuming constant margins and constant float, you can calculate the PER as it will be at the end of the year if the market decided not to reflect the new results (rendering a decrease in PER). However, it is safe to assume that the market will take into account the new results and that the PER will at least be that of today. Using this assumption you can calculate a share value for the end of 2009 of about €18. Given today’s price of €14.7, this could be a real bargain.
| 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | |
| CA 1er trimestre | 35 900€ | 28 200€ | 20 800€ | 13 300€ | 19 600€ | - |
| CA 2ème trimestre | 39 350€ | 33 400€ | 23 000€ | 15 900€ | 12 500€ | - |
| CA 3ème trimestre | 40 248€ | 34 400€ | 24 500€ | 17 700€ | 12 500€ | - |
| CA 4ème trimestre | 74 280€ | 61 900€ | 52 100€ | 27 300€ | 21 500€ | - |
| Chiffre d’affaires | 189 778€ | 157 840€ | 120 499€ | 74 151€ | 66 072€ | 46 128€ |
| Résultat opérationnel | 12 336€ | 10 260€ | 7 766€ | 4 211€ | 3 090€ | 4 185€ |
| Résultat net(partdugroupe) | 5 693€ | 4 760€ | 3 433€ | 2 345€ | 1 396€ | 1 950€ |
| Marge d’exploitation | 6,50% | 6,50% | 6,44% | 5,68% | 4,68% | 9,07% |
| Marge nette | 3% | 3,02% | 2,85% | 3,16% | 2,11% | 4,23% |
| Gearing | - | 146,95% | 52,17% | 80,23% | 52,55% | |
| Effectifmoyen | - | - | - | 803 | 662 | |
| 2009/2008 | 2008/2007 | 2007/2006 | 2006/2005 | 2005/2004 | ||
| CA 1er trimestre | 27,30% | 35,58% | 56,39% | -32,14% | ||
| CA 2ème trimestre | 17,81% | 45,22% | 44,65% | 27,20% | ||
| CA 3ème trimestre | 17,00% | 40,41% | 38,42% | 41,60% | ||
| CA 4ème trimestre | 20,00% | 18,81% | 90,84% | 26,98% | ||
| Chiffre d’affaires | 30,99% | 62,50% | 12,23% | 43,24% | ||
| Résultat opérationnel | 20,23% | 32,11% | 84,42% | 36,28% | -26,16% | |
| Résultat net(partdugroupe) | 19,61% | 38,65% | 46,40% | 67,98% | -28,41% | |
| Capitalisation constante | €118 860 | €118 860 | ||||
| 2009 | 2008 | |||||
| PER (Culculé) | 20,87702473 | 24,97058824 | ||||
| Capitalisation for same PER | 142 166€ | 118 860€ | ||||
| P/Share | 18€ | 14,77€ |
Update : You learn something new every day and today’s lesson is: “Always make sure you order went through”. I placed a purchase order at €14,9 and unfortunately, it did not go through so LNA will not be appearing in my portfolio.