• because banks are failing and the economy is in recession, the government decided to pump ‘liquidity’ to kick start the economy
• the extra liquidity means that is there is more ‘cash’ in the economy than the latter actually produces (imagine if everybody in the UK received a 30% pay rise for the same amount of work produced)
• in turn, the increase in cash, decreases the value of the money and prices increase.. here you go: inflation!

Because of this quantitative easing (QE), there is no doubt that there WILL be inflation (some is kinda good) the question is HOW MUCH and WHEN. Well, that, in turns, depends on (1) how quickly the banks (principal recipient of QE) release the cash in the economy and (2) how quickly the UK economy grows to absorb that extra cash. A way round this is, of course, if the extra cash leaves the country

Now, the latest quarterly figures of the economy show an increase in trade deficit, which, on its own, means nothing. A trade deficit means that the country is importing more than it is exporting… i.e. not a great way to kick start the economy… imagine that instead of producing more ’stuff’, we just buy it from someone else… all the while more and more cash is being poured in the economy, see a problem there?

So, what can we do? well, have a look at the presentation

Is Inflation Going To Be A Problem ?

Now, take a corporation like Heartwood Wealth Management. The company (as its name suggests) is a wealth management company whose purpose is to manage investment portfolios for high net worth individuals (HNWI). Of all the HNWI I have met, one common denominator to them is: they are picky, especially with what they do with their money. This is quite understandable: they worked very hard (or not) to get their wealth and they want to make sure they don’t (excuse my expression) “piss it down the sink”. They would therefore seek out a company like Heartwood who has a demonstrated reputation for excellence and portfolio management. Of course, if I were to give my family wealth to a company, I would probably dig a little deeper and that’s where the cracks on that shiny armor appear: spelling mistakes. If my wealth manager cannot spell simple words, how can you be sure that the orders it will pass on your behalf are correct or that your portfolio has grown by 10% and not 1.0% in that quarterly report…

So into the heart of the subject now, here are the spelling mistakes I have come across on the Heartwood website:

- soltuions

- targetting

You can find many more on this website and other websites such as Newton’s (look for Feburary) and even larger corporations such as Barclays (search: compatability).

In conclusion, there is no excuse for these spelling mistakes, they look cheap and are very easy to spot and cheap to mend (there are many tools that will scan your whole website for them), so get cracking, and correct them all !!

The teams that formed around ideas/problems/needs are just amazing!! They didn’t know each other on Friday evening when they arrived and they are now working together till 5am, having breakfast, debating on business plans…

The only downside to the event has been the lack of sponsorship from lots of early stage Venture Capital firms. We have and thank Sun, Orange, Mappy, Orkos, Altaïde, Metaboli, Planet-Work and La Cantine but all the venture capital firms that we contacted were not interested. I am failing to understand why, since hunting for new businesses and investing in them is their job – if I am mistaken, please correct me.

I can only find two explanations for this phenomenon: either the guys working in these VC firms are not passionate about VC to spend the weekend with entrepreneurs, in which case perhaps you should give me your job; or, the firms don’t have any money to invest, which is a poor argument sincewe asked for €500 upwards AND a lot of our sponsors and members of the jury paid for the entry ticket themselves – so back to point 1.

Despite this lack of enthusiasm from the financial world, the companies and ideas generated there are amazing and I invite you all to check out the live company presentation feed on Sunday evening (I will post the URL here and on twitter/facebook).

‘Because we don’t like to see Rabbits die’ or because we are slightly crazy, Franck and I decided to rescue the company by placing a bid for it. Unfortunately, none of us had or have the adequate funds so we decided to crowfund the bid.

The story thus started with the launch of savenabaztag.com. Due to legal ramifications, we decided not to collect any money but to collect pledges. These pledges would entitle you to a share of the new business with the corresponding voting rights. The idea was to have a democratically ran business where X number of people would vote for Y representatives that would then elect the board. The advantage of this type of corporate structure is that the managers are totally accountable to owners (Warren Buffet would have been proud).

The website received a lot of publicity and visits (more than 1M hits and close to 30 000 unique visitors!!). The site collected a total of €166k in pledges. Unfortunately, the administrator was not that forthcoming and we never managed to access the dossier. We thus estimated how much it would cost to purchase the company and restructure it but we knew that these numbers were estimates.

We were contacted by several journalists and private investors who were keen to chip in if we went ahead. However, none but one were keen to get the dossier for us to carry out a proper due diligence. Unfortunately, the demand was late in the process (48H before deadline) and was rejected.

As it turns out 3 companies placed bids for the company and all 3 were rejected. The average bid was about €300k proving that we were not that far off target and had we had the dossier, we would have managed to collect at least that much from private investors. Currently, the decision as to who will take over Violet is still up in the air but only one company (the creator of the Adibou educational series) is in the loop and has until the 20th to place a reasonable bid.

All is not lost though. We do not know what Adibou’s parent has in mind and perhaps there will be an opportunity to create an Association and purchase the servers, the code to keep the Rabbits alive.

Business and Finance and Crowdfunding

From a pure investment point of view, the experience showed the limits of the current financing and investment models. Crowdfunding (i.e. calling onto public funding) is actually illegal if you ask more than 100 people. In this day and age when the human population getting cleverer and smarter, why should a startup not be allowed to ask the general public from some money. It would obviously need to be within a regulated framework with a limit on each individual’s contribution and some kind of light financial reporting. We think that this is a major lever for future innovation and funding.

As a simple example, take a company X part of a large conglomerate. Imagine X is profitable but not as much a the rest of the group. The group might well decide to liquidate and/or simply close the company. Why would, in these cases, the general public not be allowed to bid for it by offering, €10, €20, €100 euros? Politicians have to acknowledge this new source of funding and financial regulators need to create the appropriate framework. The ball is in your court…

• if the kid misplaces his/her security blanket at home, you can use the second ‘Retrouve Doudou’ to ping the first one. The first one will then emit noise, light up.
• if the kid misplaces his/her security blanket outside and you cannot ping it, there is a code on the back of the ‘Retrouve Doudou’ that allows the finder to get back in touch with the owner via the Iddoo website.

As it turns out (I chatted with the inventor/CEO at the ‘Salon Baby’ in Paris), he made a large proportion of his sales from…. adults (men) who consistently lose their keys!

Is this a good investment?

As usual, let’s have a look at the financials of this company and how much money they make on each product. The product is sold between €20 and €29,90 for two.

To start with, here is a quick component list with price estimates:

• RF chip (the website claims a range of 8m on 2.4GHz), which could be something like that: Freescale RF Transceiver. They cost about €3 each for a good quantity (100s).
• Casing is made of plastic and some rubbery bit that is safe for children. It also has a clippy bit to attach it to the safety blanket. Apparently this is 100% manufactured in France so I would estimate the cost to be in the area of €1/piece.
• Miscellaneous devices (little tweeter, LED, battery, screws etc.): about €1.
• Packaging in France: about €2

Just for manufacturing, we can estimate the cost of each unit to be about €7 giving a total cost per pack of €14 leaving a 30% margin for a €20 price and a 100% margin for a €29.90.

A 30% operational margin is quite low considering you still need to account for R&D, marketing, SG&A (especially in France), sales. The price point seems to be correct (it sells) however, I would have liked to see a consistent 50% margin rather than a discount that kills your margin: a 33% discount in price reduces your margin by close to 60%!! Also, I understand the manufacturer’s concern of safety and why he wants to keep the manufacturing in France, however this is not advertised strongly enough in my opinion.

From a technical point of view, I like the product and I think it will sell. I would have liked to a see perhaps a Zigbee technology (offering a 100m range) because outside of Paris, houses can be that big and probably bigger.

Competitive advantage

They are clearly first to market, at least in France! One of their main competitive advantages is the registration of the ‘Retrouve Doudou’ that helps them build a community and thus keep a certain level of interaction with its users. However, I have doubts whether this competitive advantage is sustainable especially when China will be pouring some cheap copies in a couple of years. Provided Iddoo can develop their brand and create new products or additions to the current products (e.g. pairing more ‘Retrouve Doudou’), they will be able to grow and become the reference for Children ‘gadget’ products.

Would I invest in it?

In this situation, I would like to know what the long-term strategic plan of the firm is. The product is excellent: it sells and will sell more. However, investments should be long term, in a good company that will be come great. I would be interested to see what they do with their profits, if it anything but reinvested capital, (in my opinion) this will forecast trouble ahead.

In order for an investment to give you a satisfactory return, you thus want to purchase a company (or part thereof) at a discounted price to its current or future value (as calculated during your analysis). This is when the stock price comes in… with a publicly-trading company, the price at which you will purchase the stock of the said company will be determined by the market. The key is thus to buy the stock when it is trading at a significant discount to what you have calculated previously.

Finding companies matching these criteria is surprisingly easy since it depends on the analysis you have carried out and how you interpret a ’significant discount’. Here are a few examples:

• Ben Graham (and many other value investors) define this criteria as to when the stock is trading below the company’s net working capital
• Venture Capitalists and Private Equity-st understand a similar concept as they are investing with the assurance that the company’s present value is below the company’s future value

Because the market is not perfect (otherwise arbitrage companies would never make money), companies’ stock will sometimes match the above criteria on several occasions that do not change the company’s value (significantly). For instance:

• If the whole market is depressed like in a bear market
• If the company recently received some bad news (for instance, it missed its quarterly targets)
• If the company is currently considered ‘uncool’ by investors (c.f. IT bubble of 2000)
• Any other reason you could think of…

Obviously, this kind of investment assumes that the company’s ‘cheap’ stock price will eventually reflect (and surpass) the valuation that you have made above. This part of the theory is backed by empirical data and analysis provided by Ben Graham, Warren Buffet and many other value investors.

The question thus remains: how would you define a company that you think will make a good investment… and that will be left for another post.

• a round plastic disc with a sticky side
• a new way of communicating amongst people
• a shy guy’s way to a lady’s heart

However, since all good marketers know that a “product is what a product does”, let me describe to you a plausible situation. Imagine yourself walking down the street minding your own business, when you suddenly pass this wonderfully beautiful girl/man. You have the choice of either approaching him/her with the high and present risk of failure and looking ridiculous. Or, you can quickly text a message to the number on the wuiper and then launch it onto the girl/man (hence the sticky side). Later on, the object of your desire will find the wuiper inviting him/her to texting the wuiper’s number to retrieve your message. The beginning of a love story….

If this does not sound familiar or too converted to be economically appealing, imagine this other situation. You are 15 in high school and would like to talk to this girl on the other side of the classroom but do not dare to, so you send her a little piece of folded paper. Now place this 15 year old into today’s world of mobile phones, internet and…. wuipers!!! Makes business-sense now?

The picture on the left is to give you an idea of what one wuiper looks like. The image is dark and not very focused due to real-life testing conditions or ‘market research’. Applying Mr. Buffet’s principles (‘our market research consisted of buying the product and trying it out’), we set out to launch a few in a pub to get the people’s reactions. The result is that much money will need to be spent to educate the customer. Indeed, the first reaction was to throw the disc away. The second reaction (after a bit more quizzing as to what the object is) was a LOT of interest (hey, who doesn’t like to have a secret lover!).

Would you invest in the business?

Well, let’s consider numbers here. A little disc like this one probably costs about €0.01 a piece to manufacture in China. Add on top of that another €0.1 for shipping the wuipers to Europe. Finally, you’ll probably want to spend (at least) €0.2 on customers’ education. Finally, add another €0.1 for the servers, the phone line etc… This gives you a total unit cost of about €0.4 for a large quantity. This is of course purely speculative and will depend on volume amongst other things. For, say a first batch of 100,000 units, this sounds about right.

The retail price on the website is €1.5 for two wuipers – they come in what looks like a teabag. During our market research, we found a customer price point closer to the symbolic €1. This would give you a margin of about 20%-50% depending on scenarios and assumptions. So, for about 100,000 units, this could be a margin of €20,000 to €50,000 that could be directly re-invested in the business.

Let’s just look at UK universities as a market for now. UCAS tells me there are about 0.5M people enrolling into University every year. Since the average course length is about 3.5 years (make it 3 for easier calculations), this gives you a target population of 1.5M/year. Let’s assume 1 in every 10 people will buy the product once a month (this is likely to be more), this would give you roughly about €1.8M/year in revenue or about €360k-€0.9M profit a year! This is not bad for universities alone (considering the school population is going to be bigger than that – thank you compulsory schooling!!)

Is it a good business?

Let’s think about it from different aspects.

First of all, consider the novelty aspect and the marketing strategy. My opinion is that the target age group ranges from teenagers to mid-20 year olds (including university students and club-goers). This population doesn’t have very much cash to spend however they spend the largest proportion of what they have on… entertainment (and drinks)!! The wuiper would therefore be totally appropriate for these people at a price point of €1-€1.5.

In terms of pure marketing, this has the potential to become viral and to take off very quickly amongst the target population where ‘fashion items’ are taken up at a breathtaking speed. I would go round schools and universities and find ways to get the people interested. For instance: I could totally see this kind of product being sold at entrances to clubs where people queue, think about their ‘pulling strategies’ and what their night will entail. Raise their hopes by just 1% and wuipers will sell like hotbuns.

In terms of novelty, there is clearly an upside and a downside to being first to the market with this kind of product. The upside is that you will get brand recognition. The downside is that you will be the first (and only one) spending money on customers’ education.

Looking at competitors’ reaction, here is the most likely scenario (taken from ‘pogs’, ’scoobidoos’, etc…). You launch the wuiper, it starts taking off because it is novel and people are interested and no everyone else has it i.e. it is a ‘fashion item’. Your competitors (probably in China) hear about it and start manufacturing bucket loads of the same product pricing it at €0.1 less – let’s face it, it’s a plastic ring with glue and a number, can you justify a price premium on it from a customer’s perspective? Wuipers (and their competitors) are everywhere making them ‘uncool’ (because not that unique nor novel anymore), the product dies. Now, I think this kind of scenario is likely to take 3-5 years, which is plenty of time to make (lots) of money and invest the proceeds into another business. The kind of the wuipers will be to act quickly and to target group leaders.

One potential pitfall: if the wuiper works, production and shipping will have to follow.. fast! This point is often overlooked: if people are ready to buy your stuff, you need to be able to sell it to them.

Despite the website’s Web 1.0 looks, it offers ways of choosing from different fabrics, number of pockets, number of buttons… pretty much everything you could want! I decided to upgrade mine to a different fabric and tweak the jacket buttons and inside lining. It all came to a total of €195, not bad for a ‘made to measure’. Yes, delivery was included using Fedex.

I tracked my parcel using the Fedex number provided and my parcel left from Tan Binh in Vietnam. Vietnamese tailors have a reputation for quality but I was still surprised that my suit would be shipped directly from there without first going to the Suitopia headquarters. I expect all the quality control is done in Vietnam and has been tested many times over! My suit travelled from Vietnam to China and then straight to France giving a total shipping time of 2 days and a total delivery time from order of 28 days exactly, not bad at all. If I take away shipping (2 days) and order processing (say 2 days) and payment processing (they say you can have your suit in 20 days using Paypal (instant payment) and 3-5 weeks using a credit card, so payment delay is about 0 to 2 weeks), it took them between 22 and 24 days to manufacture my suit. Now, I expect they had more than just my order and more than just one person to make the suit so I can only but estimate how quickly this suit was made.

So, what about quality? Well the quality is excellent, I received my parcel, opened it up (before signing anything) to check for tears, rips and poor sewing and, well, I could not find any at all! I checked all the seams, slightly pulling on them along the way and everything was fine. I tried my suit on and, well, it’s a perfect fit!

Is it a good business to invest in?

Well, let’s start with the basics. According to my friend Google, a tailored suit in South Korea or Vietnam costs between $60-$85, which is about €40-€60. This includes the fabric, the tailor’s margin etc. Fedex from Vietnam to Paris is between $70-$80 (€50-€60) giving a COGS of €90-€120 per item. Let’s deduce from that SG&A of about €10-€20 for paying a webmaster, running the ERP etc. (this is based around a total monthly cost of $1000 for 100 suits at €165) leaving a gross profit of €20-€50/suit for 100 orders per month or a total of €24,000-€60,000/year. Remove 30% tax (and no debt repayment), this leaves you with a net profit of €16,800-€42,000/year. This is not a bad business to be in, for which some of the profitability levers will be:

• The total cost of each suit for each custom element (there could even be a profit per element perhaps?)
• The transport costs currently hacking away nearly half of COGS
• Volume, in this business clearly ‘the more, the merrier’

Associating with an already-established distribution network would clearly help to raise the profit margin. We could imagine Suitopia creating suits under their own brand name or working as a ‘white label’ for a large distributor…

About Suitopia : Suitopia.com is a Swedish company that has been in existence since April 2008 (or thereabouts) created by Aleksander Lund. They sell customisable made-to-measure suits. According to their website “Suitopia Scandinavia AB is a company which aims to harness the benefits of globalisation and the Internet era and mold these two pillars of the modern business environment together, in order to offer superior products to our customers at good prices.”

“I read the article you wrote about Suitopia, and it was really good! Very happy that you liked your Suitopia suit.”

Aleksander Lund – CEO, Suitopia

You will find below calculations carried out on the 6th of August to determine whether Le Noble Age was a bargain trading at €14.7.

I created this spreadsheet after hearing about their 3rd trimester results. What I started doing was to extrapolate the 3rd and 4th trimester progression with regard to current market conditions and specifically answering “What is a reasonable growth rate for these two trimesters?”. I only worried about these two trimesters because – for once – I took a short-term view of the company’s growth and value. Assuming constant margins and constant float, you can calculate the PER as it will be at the end of the year if the market decided not to reflect the new results (rendering a decrease in PER). However, it is safe to assume that the market will take into account the new results and that the PER will at least be that of today. Using this assumption you can calculate a share value for the end of 2009 of about €18. Given today’s price of €14.7, this could be a real bargain.

Update : You learn something new every day and today’s lesson is: “Always make sure you order went through”. I placed a purchase order at €14,9 and unfortunately, it did not go through so LNA will not be appearing in my portfolio.

Does this mean states should limit inflation by increasing lending rates? Isn’t this the most promiscuous way of then creating a bubble? The fundamental financial definition of a bubble is a state in which the company’s floating equity exceeds its book value assets. Of course, the difference takes into account band value, future potential, patents, ideas etc… . Fundamentally, all long term investors always avoid stock in which this situation occurs. Of course, they will miss out on extremely high return for 2,3,4 years however their “safe” position will eventually mark the underlying of the investment market.

Today’s market has touched rock bottom (or near there anyway). This is an ideal time for investment, safe long term investment in which individuals can get good rates over 5-10 years. In today’s market, many quoted companies have share values far below their asset value and – sometimes – even paying a dividend higher than the stock price !! How can this not be a win-win situation? The issue is always finding them, but you cannot get something for nothing, so time must be spent looking at the stock market and its companies.

In any case, Bubbles are understood and explained, and yet, every 10 year or so, the whole market is ‘tricked’ again and appears surprised that the new trend, which they invested in, collapsed and left them penniless. Growth cannot come without risk and without an underlying reason… The Coca Cola brand value was not created over 1 day, week, month or even year so if a company’s stock takes off, either find a sensible reason, or forget it!! It’s a Tit for Tat situation: if everybody did the sensible thing, Bubbles wouldn’t be!